Clin Mol Hepatol > Accepted Articles
Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is decreasing in Korea but increasing in the very elderly
Young Eun Chon1, Seong Yong Park2,3, Han Pyo Hong4, Donghee Son5, Jonghyun Lee6, Eileen Yoon7, Soon Sun Kim8, Sang Bong Ahn9, Soung Won Jeong10, Dae Won Jun7
1Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam, Republic of Korea
2Big Data Steering Department, National Health Insurance Service, Wonju-si, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea
3Department of Health Administration, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Wonju-si, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea
4Big Data Center, Department of Statistics, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju-si, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea
5Biostatistical Consulting and Research Lab, Medical Research Collaborating Center, HanyangUniversity; Seoul, Republic of Korea
6Department of Medical and Digital Engineering, Hanyang University College of Engineering, Seoul, Republic of Korea
7Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Hanyang University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
8Department of Gastroenterology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Republic of Korea
9Department of Internal Medicine, Eulji University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
10Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Correspondence :  Soung Won Jeong ,
Tel: +82-2-9419-1823, Fax: +82-2-709-9696, Email: jeongsw@schmc.ac.kr
Dae Won Jun ,
Tel: +82-2-2290-8338, Fax: +82-2-2298-9183, Email: noshin@hanyang.ac.kr
Received: December 20, 2021  Revised: July 29, 2022   Accepted: August 6, 2022
ABSTRACT
Background
A comprehensive analysis of trends in the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for planning public health initiatives. We aimed to analyze the trends in HCC incidence in South Korea over 10 years and to predict the incidence for the year 2028.
Methods
Data from patients with newly diagnosed HCC between 2008 and 2018 were obtained from Korean National Health Insurance Service database. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated to compare HCC incidence. A Poisson regression model was used to predict the future incidence of HCC.
Results
The average crude incidence rate (CR) was 22.4 per 100,000 person-years, and the average ASR was 17.6 per 100,000 person-years between 2008 and 2018. The CR (from 23.9 to 21.2 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (from 21.9 to 14.3 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence decreased during the past ten years in all age groups, except in the elderly. The ASR of patients aged ≥80 years increased significantly (from 70.0 to 160.2/100,000 person-years; average annual percent change,+9.00%;p<0.001). The estimated CR (17.9 per 100,000 person-years) and ASR (9.7 per 100,000 person-years) of HCC incidence in 2028 was declined, but the number of HCC patients aged ≥80 years in 2028 will be quadruple greater than the number of HCC patients in 2008 (from 521 to 2,055), comprising 21.3% of all HCC patients in 2028.
Conclusions
The ASRs of HCC in Korea have gradually declined over the past 10 years, but the number, CR, and ASR are increasing in patients aged ≥80 years.
KeyWords: Age-standardized rate, Hepatocellular carcinoma, Incidence, Korea, Prediction

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