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Hepatitis-B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure has a poor prognosis. However, the advent of potent oral antiviral agents means that some patients can now recover with medical treatment. We aimed to identify the prognostic factors for hepatitis-B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure including the initial as well as the dynamically changing clinical parameters during admission.
Sixty-seven patients were retrospectively enrolled from 2003 to 2012 at Samsung Medical Center. The patients were classified into three categories: Recovery group (n=23), Liver transplantation group (n=28), and Death group (n=16). The Liver transplantation and Death groups were combined into an Unfavorable prognosis group. We analyzed the prognostic factors including the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores determined at 3-day intervals.
A multivariable analysis showed that the unfavorable prognostic factors were a high initial MELD score (≥28) (odds ratio [OR] =6.64, p=0.015), moderate-to-severe ascites at admission (OR=6.71,
Dynamic changes in clinical parameters during admission are useful prognostic factors for hepatitis-B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.
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The modification of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scoring system (Refit MELD) and the modification of MELD-Na (Refit MELDNa), which optimized the MELD coefficients, were published in 2011. We aimed to validate the superiority of the Refit MELDNa over the Refit MELD for the prediction of 3-month mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis and ascites.
We reviewed the medical records of patients admitted with hepatic cirrhosis and ascites to the Konkuk University Hospital between January 2006 and December 2011. The Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa were compared using the predictive value of the 3-month mortality, as assessed by the Child-Pugh score.
In total, 530 patients were enrolled, 87 of whom died within 3 months. Alcohol was the most common etiology of their cirrhosis (n=271, 51.1%), and the most common cause of death was variceal bleeding (n=20, 23%). The areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROCs) for the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores were 0.754, 0.791, and 0.764 respectively; the corresponding values when the analysis was performed only in patients with persistent ascites (n=115) were 0.725, 0.804, and 0.796, respectively. The significant difference found among the Child-Pugh, Refit MELD, and Refit MELDNa scores was between the Child-Pugh score and Refit MELD in patients with persistent ascites (
Refit MELD and Refit MELDNa exhibited good predictability for 3-month mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. However, Refit MELDNa was not found to be a better predictor than Refit MELD, despite the known relationship between hyponatremia and mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites.
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