Background/Aims Identifying patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) likely to benefit from immunochemotherapy, the new front-line treatment, remains challenging. We aimed to unveil a novel radiotranscriptomic signature that can facilitate treatment response prediction by multi-omics integration and multiscale modelling.
Methods We analyzed bulk, single-cell and spatial transcriptomic data comprising 457 ICC patients to identify an immune-related score (IRS), followed by decoding its spatial immune context. We mapped radiomics profiles onto spatial-specific IRS using machine learning to define a novel radiotranscriptomic signature, followed by multi-scale and multi-cohort validation covering 331 ICC patients. The signature was further explored for the potential therapeutic target from in vitro to in vivo.
Results We revealed a novel 3-gene (PLAUR, CD40LG, and FGFR4) IRS whose down-regulation correlated with better survival and improved sensitivity to immunochemotherapy. We highlighted functional IRS-immune interactions within tumor epithelium, rather than stromal compartment, irrespective of geospatial locations. Machine learning pipeline identified the optimal 3-feature radiotranscriptomic signature that was well-validated by immunohistochemical assays in molecular cohort, exhibited favorable external prognostic validity with C-index over 0.64 in resection cohort, and predicted treatment response with an area under the curve of up to 0.84 in immunochemotherapy cohort. We also showed that anti-uPAR/PLAUR alone or in combination with anti-programmed cell death protein 1 therapy remarkably curbed tumor growth, using in vitro ICC cell lines and in vivo humanized ICC patient-derived xenograft mouse models.
Conclusions This proof-of-concept study sheds light on the spatially-resolved radiotranscriptomic signature to improve patient selection for emerging immunochemotherapy and high-order immunotherapy combinations in ICC.
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Background/Aims A large percentage of patients undergoing esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening do not have esophageal varices (EV) or have only small EV. We evaluated a large, international, multicenter cohort to develop a novel score, termed FIB-4plus, by combining the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) to identify high-risk EV (HRV) in compensated cirrhosis.
Methods This international cohort study involved patients with compensated cirrhosis from 17 Chinese hospitals and one Croatian institution (NCT04546360). Two-dimensional shear wave elastography-derived LSM and SSM values, and components of the FIB-4 score (i.e., age, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet count [PLT]) were combined using machine learning algorithms (logistic regression [LR] and extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]) to develop the LR-FIB-4plus and XGBoost-FIB-4plus models, respectively. Shapley Additive exPlanations method was used to interpret the model predictions.
Results We analyzed data from 502 patients with compensated cirrhosis who underwent EGD screening. The XGBoost-FIB-4plus score demonstrated superior predictive performance for HRV, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.927 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.897–0.957) in the training cohort (n=268), and 0.919 (95% CI 0.843–0.995) and 0.902 (95% CI 0.820–0.984) in the first (n=118) and second (n=82) external validation cohorts, respectively. Additionally, the XGBoost-FIB-4plus score exhibited high AUROC values for predicting EV across all cohorts. The FIB-4plus score outperformed the individual parameters (LSM, SSM, PLT, and FIB-4).
Conclusions The FIB-4plus score effectively predicted EV and HRV in patients with compensated cirrhosis, providing clinicians with a valuable tool for optimizing patient management and outcomes.
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Background/Aims Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exhibits high de novo recurrence rates post-resection. Current post-surgery recurrence prediction methods are limited, emphasizing the need for reliable biomarkers to assess recurrence risk. We aimed to develop methylation-based markers for classifying HCC patients and predicting their risk of de novo recurrence post-surgery.
Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed data from HCC patients who underwent surgical resection in Korea, excluding those with recurrence within one year post-surgery. Using the Infinium Methylation EPIC array on 140 samples in the discovery cohort, we classified patients into low- and high-risk groups based on methylation profiles. Distinctive markers were identified through random forest analysis. These markers were validated in the cancer genome atlas (n=217), Validation cohort 1 (n=63) and experimental Validation using a methylation-sensitive high-resolution melting (MS-HRM) assay in Validation cohort 1 and Validation cohort 2 (n=63).
Results The low-risk recurrence group (methylation group 1; MG1) showed a methylation average of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69–0.77) with a 23.5% recurrence rate, while the high-risk group (MG2) had an average of 0.17 (95% CI 0.14–0.20) with a 44.1% recurrence rate (P<0.03). Validation confirmed the applicability of methylation markers across diverse populations, showing high accuracy in predicting the probability of HCC recurrence risk (area under the curve 96.8%). The MS-HRM assay confirmed its effectiveness in predicting de novo recurrence with 95.5% sensitivity, 89.7% specificity, and 92.2% accuracy.
Conclusions Methylation markers effectively classified HCC patients by de novo recurrence risk, enhancing prediction accuracy and potentially offering personalized management strategies.
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Background/Aims The performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups.
Methods The study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort.
Results In the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores.
Conclusions Both the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.
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Background/Aims Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is characterized by fat accumulation in the liver. MASLD encompasses both steatosis and MASH. Since MASH can lead to cirrhosis and liver cancer, steatosis and MASH must be distinguished during patient treatment. Here, we investigate the genomes, epigenomes, and transcriptomes of MASLD patients to identify signature gene set for more accurate tracking of MASLD progression.
Methods Biopsy-tissue and blood samples from patients with 134 MASLD, comprising 60 steatosis and 74 MASH patients were performed omics analysis. SVM learning algorithm were used to calculate most predictive features. Linear regression was applied to find signature gene set that distinguish the stage of MASLD and to validate their application into independent cohort of MASLD.
Results After performing WGS, WES, WGBS, and total RNA-seq on 134 biopsy samples from confirmed MASLD patients, we provided 1,955 MASLD-associated features, out of 3,176 somatic variant callings, 58 DMRs, and 1,393 DEGs that track MASLD progression. Then, we used a SVM learning algorithm to analyze the data and select the most predictive features. Using linear regression, we identified a signature gene set capable of differentiating the various stages of MASLD and verified it in different independent cohorts of MASLD and a liver cancer cohort.
Conclusions We identified a signature gene set (i.e., CAPG, HYAL3, WIPI1, TREM2, SPP1, and RNASE6) with strong potential as a panel of diagnostic genes of MASLD-associated disease.
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Background/Aims Despite the high efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), approximately 1–3% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. We conducted a nationwide study to investigate risk factors associated with DAA treatment failure. Machine-learning algorithms have been applied to discriminate subjects who may fail to respond to DAA therapy.
Methods We analyzed the Taiwan HCV Registry Program database to explore predictors of DAA failure in HCV patients. Fifty-five host and virological features were assessed using multivariate logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network. The primary outcome was undetectable HCV RNA at 12 weeks after the end of treatment.
Results The training (n=23,955) and validation (n=10,346) datasets had similar baseline demographics, with an overall DAA failure rate of 1.6% (n=538). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, poor DAA adherence, and higher hemoglobin A1c were significantly associated with virological failure. XGBoost outperformed the other algorithms and logistic regression models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 1.000 in the training dataset and 0.803 in the validation dataset. The top five predictors of treatment failure were HCV RNA, body mass index, α-fetoprotein, platelets, and FIB-4 index. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the XGBoost model (cutoff value=0.5) were 99.5%, 69.7%, 99.9%, 97.4%, and 99.5%, respectively, for the entire dataset.
Conclusions Machine learning algorithms effectively provide risk stratification for DAA failure and additional information on the factors associated with DAA failure.
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Clin Mol Hepatol 2022;28(1):105-116. Published online October 15, 2021
Background/Aims To develop an early prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) using machine learning and to evaluate whether the inclusion of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-associated variables increases the performance of model.
Methods This prospective cohort study evaluated pregnant women for NAFLD using ultrasound at 10–14 weeks and screened them for GDM at 24–28 weeks of gestation. The clinical variables before 14 weeks were used to develop prediction models for GDM (setting 1, conventional risk factors; setting 2, addition of new risk factors in recent guidelines; setting 3, addition of routine clinical variables; setting 4, addition of NALFD-associated variables, including the presence of NAFLD and laboratory results; and setting 5, top 11 variables identified from a stepwise variable selection method). The predictive models were constructed using machine learning methods, including logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and deep neural networks.
Results Among 1,443 women, 86 (6.0%) were diagnosed with GDM. The highest performing prediction model among settings 1–4 was setting 4, which included both clinical and NAFLD-associated variables (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.563–0.697 in settings 1–3 vs. 0.740–0.781 in setting 4). Setting 5, with top 11 variables (which included NAFLD and hepatic steatosis index), showed similar predictive power to setting 4 (AUC 0.719–0.819 in setting 5, P=not significant between settings 4 and 5).
Conclusions We developed an early prediction model for GDM using machine learning. The inclusion of NAFLDassociated variables significantly improved the performance of GDM prediction. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02276144)
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