Liver transplantation (LT) is one of the most effective treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although LT eliminates HCC and greatly reduces recurrence, some patients experience recurrence after LT. Criteria and models for screening patients with a high probability of HCC recurrence after LT, starting with the Milan criteria, have been published. These models have changed over time, but a standard has not been established. We summarized HCC prediction models after LT by focusing on the application of radiologic, serologic, and pathologic factors and recent trends. This review will look at studies that are based on living donor LT and deceased donor LT, as well as studies that downstaging procedures have been performed preoperatively. This ultimately aims to help make decisions for evaluating the HCC state and selecting candidates for LT according to the circumstances of each transplantation center.
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
Lack of progress in cancer-related outcomes after liver transplantation: Mitigating risk and identifying future needs to move this needle Alex Liu, Wei Rao, Kymberly D. Watt Liver Transplantation.2026; 32(1): 107. CrossRef
A non-invasive decision tree predicting recurrence-free survival after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma Mo-Dan Yang, Jian-Yong Zhuo, Guo-Ying Wang, Li Zhuang, Xiao Xu, Shu-Sen Zheng, Yang Yang, Di Lu Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International.2026; 25(1): 23. CrossRef
Neutrophils in the hepatocellular carcinoma microenvironment: orchestrators of progression and immunity Yanjie Lian, Li Wang, Jiuchong Wang, Dan Zhu, Wenliang Lyu Frontiers in Immunology.2026;[Epub] CrossRef
Defining safe thresholds for risk-adapted surveillance after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma Pedro Robson Costa Passos, Danilo Dias Avancini Viana, Gabriel Gomes de Araújo Chollet, Angel Evangelista Barroso Magalhães, Clebia Azevedo de Lima, Bartolomeu Alves Neto, Rodrigo Motta, Paulo Everton Garcia Costa, Elodie Bomfim Hyppolito, Gustavo Rego Co Digestive and Liver Disease.2026; 58(2): 258. CrossRef
Comparative Validation of Prediction Models for HCC Outcomes in Living Donor Liver Transplantation: Superiority of Tumor Markers to Imaging Study Hwa‐Hee Koh, Minyu Kang, Deok‐Gie Kim, Jae Hyon Park, Eun‐Ki Min, Jae Geun Lee, Myoung Soo Kim, Dong Jin Joo Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology.2025; 40(3): 626. CrossRef
Criteria and prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing liver transplantation Meng Sha, Jun Wang, Jie Cao, Zhi-Hui Zou, Xiao-ye Qu, Zhi-feng Xi, Chuan Shen, Ying Tong, Jian-jun Zhang, Seogsong Jeong, Qiang Xia Clinical and Molecular Hepatology.2025; 31(Suppl): S285. CrossRef
α-Fetoprotein model versus Milan criteria in predicting outcomes after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: multicentre study Chao Li, Yong-Kang Diao, Yi-Fan Li, Shao-Dong Lv, Xian-Ming Wang, Xue-Dong Wang, Qi-Xuan Zheng, Hong Wang, Han Liu, Kong-Ying Lin, Ying-Jian Liang, Ya-Hao Zhou, Wei-Min Gu, Ming-Da Wang, Lan-Qing Yao, Xin-Fei Xu, Jia-Hao Xu, Li-Hui Gu, Timothy M Pawlik, F BJS Open.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
Comparison of initial treatments for resectable hepatocellular carcinoma within Milan criteria: an observational study based on a nationwide survey Sang Jin Kim, Woo Kyoung Jeong, Hyung-Joon Han, Gyu-Seong Choi, Kyun-Hwan Kim, Jongman Kim Annals of Surgical Treatment and Research.2025; 108(5): 279. CrossRef
Traditional herbal medicine as an adjuvant therapy for preventing the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after radical resection: Development and validation of a machine learning prediction model Xinyu Yue, Meihuan Fu, Song Yu, Huayue Shi, Simo Cheng, Xiaofeng Zhai European Journal of Integrative Medicine.2025; 78: 102535. CrossRef
Experimental and Clinical Transplantation.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
Integrating Alpha‐Fetoprotein and Protein Induced by Vitamin K Antagonist‐II as Surveillance Tools After Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Novel Protocol for Early Detection of Tumor Recurrence Jiyoung Kim, Kwang‐Woong Lee, Jae‐Yoon Kim, Jaewon Lee, Hyun Hwa Choi, Su young Hong, Jeong‐Moo Lee, Suk Kyun Hong, YoungRok Choi, Nam‐Joon Yi, Kyung‐Suk Suh Clinical Transplantation.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
Activating transcription factor 4-mediated upregulation of Heat Shock Protein Family A Member 4 promotes hepatocellular carcinoma progression through activation of Wnt/β-catenin/EMT signaling pathway Ruixi Li, Kunnan Wang, Naijing Hou, Yu Tian, Biyan Gong, Min Tang International Journal of Biological Macromolecules.2025; 333: 148850. CrossRef
Mesenchymal Stem Cell-Mediated Targeted Drug Delivery Systems for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Current Advances and Future Directions Yang Gao, Jian-Ping Wang, De-Fei Hong, Chang Yang, Hua Naranmandura Bioengineering.2025; 12(11): 1206. CrossRef
Prognostic significance of MRI features in patients with solitary large hepatocellular carcinoma following surgical resection Kyowon Gu, Ji Hye Min, Jeong Hyun Lee, Jaeseung Shin, Woo Kyoung Jeong, Young Kon Kim, Honsoul Kim, Sun-Young Baek, Jong Man Kim, Gyu Seong Choi, Jinsoo Rhu, Sang Yun Ha European Radiology.2024; 34(11): 7002. CrossRef
From prediction to prevention: Machine learning revolutionizes hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence monitoring Mariana Michelle Ramírez-Mejía, Nahum Méndez-Sánchez World Journal of Gastroenterology.2024; 30(7): 631. CrossRef
Risk assessment in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: long-term follow-up of a two-centre experience Chase J. Wehrle, Roma Raj, Marianna Maspero, Sangeeta Satish, Bijan Eghtesad, Alejandro Pita, Jaekeun Kim, Mazhar Khalil, Esteban Calderon, Danny Orabi, Bobby Zervos, Jamak Modaresi Esfeh, Maureen Whitsett Linganna, Teresa Diago-Uso, Masato Fujiki, Cristi International Journal of Surgery.2024; 110(5): 2818. CrossRef
Challenges related to clinical decision-making in hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence post-liver transplantation: Is there a hope? Nourhan Badwei World Journal of Transplantation.2024;[Epub] CrossRef
Advances in Understanding Hepatocellular Carcinoma Vasculature: Implications for Diagnosis, Prognostication, and Treatment Hyungjin Rhee, Young Nyun Park, Jin-Young Choi Korean Journal of Radiology.2024; 25(10): 887. CrossRef
An inflammatory liquid fingerprint predicting tumor recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma Modan Yang, Zuyuan Lin, Li Zhuang, Linhui Pan, Rui Wang, Hao Chen, Zhihang Hu, Wei Shen, Jianyong Zhuo, Xinyu Yang, Huigang Li, Chiyu He, Zhe Yang, Qinfen Xie, Siyi Dong, Junli Chen, Renyi Su, Xuyong Wei, Junjie Yin, Shusen Zheng, Di Lu, Xiao Xu MedComm.2024;[Epub] CrossRef
New prognostic model for liver transplantation outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma S. E. Voskanyan, V. S. Rudakov, A. I. Sushkov, M. V. Popov, A. N. Bashkov, K. K. Gubarev, A. I. Artemyev, I. Yu. Kolyshev, M. Muktazhan, A. N. Pashkov, E. V. Naydenov, D. S. Svetlakova Transplantologiya. The Russian Journal of Transplantation.2024; 16(3): 278. CrossRef
Chitinase-3 like-protein-1, a prognostic biomarker in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and concomitant myosteatosis Chiyu He, Zhihang Hu, Zuyuan Lin, Hao Chen, Chenghao Cao, Jinyan Chen, Xudong Yang, Huigang Li, Wei Shen, Xuyong Wei, Li Zhuang, Shusen Zheng, Xiao Xu, Di Lu BMC Cancer.2024;[Epub] CrossRef
Severity of microvascular invasion does matter in hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis: Editorial on “Classification of microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma: correlation with prognosis and magnetic resonance imaging” Abdelrahman M Attia, Hasmik Adetyan, Ju Dong Yang Clinical and Molecular Hepatology.2024; 30(4): 653. CrossRef
Tenofovir versus entecavir on decreasing risk of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation Jianming Yang, Yewu Chen, Haobin Sun, Xijian Zhang, Jianfeng Wang, Zhixing Liang, Binsheng Fu, Tong Zhang, Shuhong Yi, Yinan Deng, Yang Yang Infectious Agents and Cancer.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Molecular Clues for Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation Nourhan Badwei Journal of Clinical and Experimental Hepatology.2023; 13(5): 804. CrossRef
Persistently Elevated HBV Viral-Host Junction DNA in Urine as a Biomarker for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Minimum Residual Disease and Recurrence: A Pilot Study Selena Y. Lin, Dina Halegoua-DeMarzio, Peter Block, Yu-Lan Kao, Jesse Civan, Fwu-Shan Shieh, Wei Song, Hie-Won Hann, Ying-Hsiu Su Diagnostics.2023; 13(9): 1537. CrossRef
Classification of microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma: correlation with prognosis and magnetic resonance imaging Yoon Jung Hwang, Jae Seok Bae, Youngeun Lee, Bo Yun Hur, Dong Ho Lee, Haeryoung Kim Clinical and Molecular Hepatology.2023; 29(3): 733. CrossRef
Hepatocellular carcinoma prediction model performance decreases with long-term antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B patients Xiaoning Wu, Xiaoqian Xu, Jialing Zhou, Yameng Sun, Huiguo Ding, Wen Xie, Guofeng Chen, Anlin Ma, HongXin Piao, Bingqiong Wang, Shuyan Chen, Tongtong Meng, Xiaojuan Ou, Hwai-I Yang, Jidong Jia, Yuanyuan Kong, Hong You Clinical and Molecular Hepatology.2023; 29(3): 747. CrossRef
Sequential regorafenib or nivolumab therapy in recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma with sorafenib failure in liver transplant patients does not improve prognosis Jieun Kwon, Jongman Kim, Jinsoo Rhu, Gyu-Seong Choi, Jae-Won Joh Annals of Liver Transplantation.2023; 3(2): 104. CrossRef
Neutrophil extracellular traps and complications of liver transplantation Yanyao Liu, Ping Yan, Yue Bin, Xiaoyan Qin, Zhongjun Wu Frontiers in Immunology.2022;[Epub] CrossRef