Background/Aims
Cirrhotic patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count ≥150×10⁹/L (Baveno VI criteria), otherwise spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) ≤40 kPa (Baveno VI-SSM criteria) can avoid endoscopy screening; however, no prospective data for their hepatic outcomes.
Methods
Compensated cirrhosis with HBV were prospectively enrolled from April 2019 to April 2022 and followed until July 2023. All patients underwent LSM, SSM and esophagogastroduodenoscopy assessment.
Results
Among 1,224 patients enrolled with median follow-up of 30 months (interquartile range, 21–42), the incidence of decompensation was greater in 560 patients with unfavored Baveno VI criteria (0.5 vs. 20.4 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0004) than that in 664 patients with favored Baveno VI-SSM criteria. The Baveno VI-SSM model identified more patients (54.2%) as low-risk for decompensation than Baveno VII-SSM model (single cutoff) (48.4%, P=0.004) and than Baveno VI criteria (34.6%, P<0.0001) did. Patients with high-risk varices diagnosed via endoscopy following Baveno VI-SSM model assessment had greater probability of decompensation compared to those identified by the Baveno VII-SSM model (single cutoff) (42.8 vs. 21.1 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0088). Additionally, among the 493 patients who underwent endoscopic re-assessment, 242 patients with favored Baveno VI-SSM criteria had much lower incidence of EV progression (2.6 vs. 99.5 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0004) and lower risk of decompensation compared to 140 patients with unfavored Baveno VI-SSM model (0 vs. 34.2 per 1,000 person-years, P=0.0256).
Conclusions
Baveno VI-SSM model could identify HBV-related cirrhosis patients at low risk of decompensation, which was greatly improved upon Baveno VI-SSM reassessment.